What would have happened if Napoleon had marched on St Petersburg rather than Moscow in 1812? Napoleon’s decision to march on Moscow in 1812 is often considered a critical factor in his downfall during the Russian campaign. However, if he had chosen to march on St. Petersburg instead, the course of history might have been different. Here are some possible outcomes:

Capture of St. Petersburg:

If Napoleon had successfully captured St. Petersburg, he would have gained control of one of the most important cities in the Russian Empire. St. Petersburg was not only a political and economic center but also housed the Russian navy. Controlling this city could have weakened Russia strategically.

Political Impact:

Capturing St. Petersburg might have dealt a severe blow to Russian morale and prestige. It could have led to political instability and pressure on the Russian leadership to negotiate a peace settlement with Napoleon.

Avoidance of Moscow’s Destruction:

By avoiding Moscow, Napoleon might have spared his army from the devastating effects of the scorched-earth policy employed by the Russians. The loss of Moscow and the subsequent retreat through harsh winter conditions were major contributors to the decimation of the Grande Armée.

International Repercussions:

The fall of St. Petersburg could have influenced the international balance of power. It might have encouraged other European nations to reconsider their alliances with Russia and potentially join forces with Napoleon against the common enemy.

Logistical Challenges:

On the other hand, capturing St. Petersburg posed significant logistical challenges. The distance from the French supply lines, the harsh Russian winter, and potential resistance from Russian forces could have presented formidable obstacles.

Guerrilla Warfare:

Even if Napoleon had taken St. Petersburg, he would likely have faced partisan and guerrilla warfare from Russian forces and local populations. The vastness of Russia made it difficult for invaders to maintain control over conquered territories.

It’s important to note that the Napoleonic era was complex, and outcomes were influenced by various factors. The success or failure of any military campaign depended on a combination of strategic decisions, battlefield events, and unforeseen circumstances. While capturing St. Petersburg might have altered some aspects of the campaign, the ultimate outcome would still be shaped by a multitude of variables.